“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”
– Rogers Hornsby, MLB player/manager 1915-1953
With a 9-1 win over the Reds in Montreal on Saturday afternoon, Spring Training has finally wrapped up and it’s time to play baseball for real. And boy am I ready.
After 2 disappointing seasons the Toronto Blue Jays once again begin an MLB season with a chance to compete for a playoff spot in the American League. The AL East is still without a dominant super power, which leaves the door open for the Jays to make a run at the postseason for the first time since 1993.
Will it happen? Nobody can say with any certainty either way.
Do I believe it’s possible? Let’s find out.
The Questions
Can the rotation rookies pitch in the big leagues?
With 40% of the starting rotation making their first opening day roster there is justified concern about Toronto’s pitching. The good news is that both Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris have tremendous upside talent, and if they can grab a little success early and build a solid relationship with Russell Martin – they should be alright.
Splitting the rookies up in the rotation looks like a smart move from John Gibbons, we’ll see how the mix and match of styles works in keeping opposing hitters off balance from day to day.
Will the bottom third of the order hit?
There’s not much concern with the top 5 or 6 spots in the Blue Jays batting order on any given day. But what about the 7, 8 & 9 spots… can Devon Travis (R), Dalton Pompey (R), and Michael Saunders (when he comes back) get on base and give the top of the order a chance to drive in some runs?
If the spring means anything (and it rarely does) the rookies should be alright. Travis hit his way onto the opening day roster, pushing the better fielding Ryan Goins back to Buffalo – and while the team is far more concerned with Pompey’s defense in centrefield, having him hit .270 with some doubles included would be wonderful. As for Saunders, once healthy and given chance to play every day in AL East parks, he should be absolutely fine. He won’t win a batting title, and he won’t hit 30 home runs, but nobody should be expected those things anyway.
If the Jays get a collective .275 OBP from the bottom third of the order I think we’ll all be happy. And I think they can do that.
Are the 20 year olds in the bullpen ready?
For the first time in team history the Blue Jays have players on the opening day roster that weren’t alive when Joe Carter took Mitch Williams deep in ’93… but I’m not that worried. Both Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna are set to be 1 inning pitchers. They aren’t expected to go through an entire order once, let alone twice. They are high upside, quality stuff guys that hit the strike zone consistently. With some early confidence and missed bats, both of these young men could make a big difference in the 2015 season.
Can the top 5 in the order be as good as we think?
- Jose Reyes
- Russell Martin
- Jose Bautista
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Josh Donaldson
As often as possible these 5 men will hit in this order for the Toronto Blue Jays. The expectation is that they will hit a pile of home runs, get on base at a higher than average clip, and produce runs day after day.
It’s not a stretch to expect 30+ home runs from Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson. And it’s not a stretch to say that the team is expecting all 5 of these players to sport OBP’s of .350+ – but expectation and reality can be tough to pair.
Jose Reyes is not the overwhelmingly dynamic player he once was, and has had trouble with his health. And Martin is due to regress at least a little bit from his numbers in Pittsburgh over the last 2 seasons.
However, added together, and providing protection for each other every time through the lineup, the top 5 in the Blue Jays order should produce a bunch of runs and help the team to win games.
Can the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays make the playoffs?
Yes.
- If the rookie starters can win 10-12 games each, and R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Drew Hutchison can win 14-17 each…
- If Jose Reyes and Russell Martin stay healthy and get on base with higher than average consistency…
- If Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson hit 30+ home runs each…
- If the bottom third of the lineup doesn’t end up being an easy set of outs…
- If the bullpen can be consistent in getting outs without giving up runs in bulk – top 8 in the AL would be great…
The Blue Jays could win 87-90 games and win the division (depending on the rebuild Red Sox) or one of the two Wild Card spots.
We said the same thing in 2013 and 2014 – and that didn’t work out. But spring is a time for rebirth and hope… and baseball!
Go Jays Go!
