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On Vince Cable’s Chances at Being Lib Dem Leader…

Posted on the 20 June 2017 by Neilmonnery @neilmonnery

So the first candidate to throw their hat into the ring is Vince Cable. The MP for Twickenham has government experience and is the most known of the potential candidates. He could easily have been leader three years ago when an attempted coup on then leader Nick Clegg was executed. The only problem was it was as well executed as my business of Texas hot chilli in a heatwave. Who knew people didn’t want to eat said food in this heat?

Now though with the runaway favorite and unification candidate having ruled herself out, it is all up for grabs. Cable is the first to openly state that he is going to run but Norman Lamb is all but assured of having a go as well. Ed Davey is the dark horse.

This though is about Cable’s chances and if you go just by the social media bubble then he has no chance. His belief that free movement of people within Europe is unfair on people from outside of the EU does not sit well within a significant group of the membership. I’ve been told by several people that he has no chance of winning because of this policy. No chance though seems a bit too extreme to me.

My thought process is outside of the social media echo chamber, many members actually like and respect Sir Vince. In 2010 his face was plastered across the Lib Dem battle bus along with Clegg because the party were worried that no-one knew who the former leader was. After the first leaders debate though everything changed but Cable was still widely respected by people from across all political spectrum’s.

Cable’s biggest issue is not his age. As we’ve seen in recent years, Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn have courted and won over a huge percentage of younger voters. His biggest issue is that freedom of movement issue and how it aligns itself to the membership.

The Lib Dems have attempted to portray themselves as the unabashed Pro-EU party but Cable seems to be pro-EU but with some caveats, mainly conceding the fact that freedom of movement isn’t popular and should be an important negotiating standpoint. This will not sit well with many but for how many will it be a red line issue?

Within the party many of the newer membership have their primary objective not towards liberalism but towards remaining a member of the EU or at worst getting a legitimately good exit deal involving continued tariff free access to the single market. Vince has repeatedly stated that the single market is vitally important but how he can get that without free movement I have no idea. It seems a bit pie in the sky but we shall see.

Another large swathe of the membership are older members who have been around since day dot of the party. These people will have a large affinity with a man who has been around for an age. Norman Lamb and Ed Davey have both been involved with the party pretty much since its formation as well in one form or another but it is Cable who many still look at as the most experienced current member of the parliamentary party.

If this contest was just the under 40s then Cable’s chances would be relatively remote. Luckily for him though it isn’t and he has every opportunity to pile up the votes from those outside of this age group. His business secretary background should also put him in good stead with a large proportion of the city community that seem to have drifted towards the Lib Dems in the past year or so.

Personally I am not enthused by any of the potential candidates at this point and nor was I in 2015. I want a leader who inspires and seems to be a breath of fresh air. I want a leader who I listen to and instantly know is far smarter and articulate than I can ever aspire to be. At this point I don’t see that candidate being or entering into the field and at that point all bets are off and very few will know how the membership will vote.

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