This post is the second in a series where I'll be using specific offensive-zone metrics to communicate players' values above replacement.
"Offensive-zone defensive impact above replacement" is used to compare the number of successful plays each player produced while attempting to remove possession from the opposition in the offensive-zone at EVEN-STRENGTH with the number of plays contributed by an average player at the same position. The higher the individual player's result versus a replacement player, the more often that player was able to produce opposition-turnovers in the offensive-zone.
A defensive-play in the offensive-zone can also be described as a forechecking-play.
OZDI-above replacement is calculated by subtracting the number of successful defensive plays an average player at a specific position (centre/defenseman/winger) averaged per-minute of ice-time from the number of defensive plays per-minute the player in question averaged. Offensive-zone defensive plays used in this calculation include; stick-checks, body-checks, blocked passes, and blocked dump-outs (blueline holds).
Douglas Murray and Jarred Tinordi scored well above replacement within this metric. That said, both players also averaged the most FAILED offensive-zone defensive-plays per-minute played; which is reflected in the fact that both players were directly responsible for more even-strength scoring-chances against per-60 than any other Montreal d-men. Murray was very active pinching-in at the blueline, while Tinordi's high value is a product of a small sample size, and a similar willingness to be active at the offensive-blueline.
Subban's low value in this metric is not necessarily a negative. It actually helps dispell the thought that number 76 is "high-risk". In fact, Subban was less-likely to risk pinching-in at the offensive-blueline than any Habs defensman not named Francis Bouillon.
This post uses data from all of the Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 regular season and 2014 playoff games.
