BEST PICTURE:
WILL WIN: La La Land
POSSIBLE UPSETS: Moonlight, Hidden Figures
I think La La Land, which is the frontrunner, will win this. I think the only two films that have a shot at upsetting are Moonlight or Hidden Figures. People love both of those films, and not everyone loves La La Land. However, La La Land is like a magnet. The problem is that most of the people love La La Land and are buying into the hype. People who don’t love it, are then splitting their votes elsewhere.
BEST DIRECTOR:
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Chazelle is the safe bet here. He’s picked up a ton of awards already, and he’s been working the awards circuit. He’s young, only 32, and he’s had two amazing films already (the other being Whiplash). The big question here is, the Oscars have a chance to make history with Barry Jenkins, as no African-American has ever won the Oscar for Best Director. I don’t think anyone else can win, but I could see Jenkins sneaking in a surprise victory here.
BEST ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Emma Stone (La La Land)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Anyone but Ruth Negga.
Stone is so far in front, I think. Some people think Streep made a case for herself with her speech at the Globes, but her film didn’t get a lot of Oscar traction, and Hugh Grant got left out. Some people still think Portman can win, but not everyone saw Jackie, and Portman has already won before. Then there’s Isabelle Huppert, but again, did enough people see Elle? The problem is that when you have too many options, there isn’t one clear person who can overtake Stone, and I think that means Stone is way in front.
BEST ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Denzel Washington (Fences)
This really is one of those “too close to call” categories. I think the fact that this would be Denzel’s third Oscar has to factor in here. Affleck has never won, and he’s been the frontrunner for most of this season. Washington’s performance is showy, Affleck’s is more internal. I actually have had Washington as my pick, but I have to go with my gut and say that Affleck is going to pull this one out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL WIN: Viola Davis (Fences)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)
Williams has never won, and this is her fourth nomination. That being said, I don’t honestly think she can upset Davis. So much so, that on Gold Derby’s prediction poll, this is one of the categories I used my Super Bet on. If you bet money on a category, this is one to do it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water) or Dev Patel (Lion)
Ali isn’t a lock. He’s just the front runner. Patel has been picking up some steam recently, and some people think he could overtake Ali. Then you have Bridges, who is the well-known actor who has been around for a while. He also fits the mold of past winners, like Alan Arkin. However, Bridges has won before, so it’s not like this is “his time”. I think Ali might edge out Patel.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: Moonlight
POSSIBLE UPSET: Hidden Figures
I think some people are surprised Moonlight is in this category, but this is where the Oscars put it. It’s won previous screenwriting awards, and I think it will win again here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: Manchester By The Sea
POSSIBLE UPSET: La La Land
Musicals typically don’t win Screenplay categories. I think the writers branch will reward Lonegran for his comeback with Manchester, another film that’s won several screenwriting awards already.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
WILL WIN: La La Land
POSSIBLE UPSET: Arrival
Honestly, Arrival should win, but I’m kinda banking on La La Land sweeping a lot of categories. This is now my fourth projected victory for La La, and it won’t stop here.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
WILL WIN: Jackie
POSSIBLE UPSET: Anything but Allied.
I don’t think Allied has a shot. I think Jackie is the frontrunner here. Usually period costumes win. I don’t think the costume guild will buy into the La La Land hype and pick a contemporary film for this award. It’s possible that Florence Foster Jenkins, which also has the mold of period costumes, wins here, but I’m going with Jackie.
BEST FILM EDITING:
WILL WIN: Arrival
POSSIBLE UPSET: La La Land
La La Land really shouldn’t win this. It’s a film comprised of long shots, and the editing in this film was fairly easy. The reason I’m picking Arrival is simply strategy. It won the ACE award for the Editors guild in this category. While the Oscars are a smaller sample of that, I have to still hope they’re majority in favor of Arrival. Technically, La La Land won under comedic.
BEST MAKEUP:
WILL WIN: A Man Called Ove
POSSIBLE UPSET: Star Trek Beyond
I’m hoping we don’t give an Oscar to Suicide Squad. I think this might be a surprise, because everyone expects it to go to a big studio film, but Deadpool wasn’t nominated for some reason.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WILL WIN: La La Land
POSSIBLE UPSET: Arrival
I think this is another win for La La, as it will easily be the most “winning” film of the year.
BEST SCORE:
WILL WIN: La La Land
POSSIBLE UPSET: None?
How could the musical lose this category? This is my other Super Bet category. I don’t even think there’s a clear second place finisher here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
WILL WIN: City Of Stars (La La Land)
POSSIBLE UPSET: Audition (La La Land), How Far I’ll Go (Moana)
I suppose there’s a chance they could pick the OTHER La La song, but everyone seems to love City Of Stars. On the offside chance that they split the votes evenly, I also suppose there’s still an outside chance Moana wins.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
WILL WIN: Hacksaw Ridge
POSSIBLE UPSET: La La Land, Arrival
Hacksaw has a lot of bullets flying and explosions. I feel like it’s the likely winner here, though these sound categories are hard to predict.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
WILL WIN: Hacksaw Ridge
POSSIBLE UPSET: La La Land, Arrival
I’m sticking with Hacksaw here again.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
WILL WIN: The Jungle Book
POSSIBLE UPSET: Doctor Strange, Rogue One
I think The Jungle Book, which created incredibly realistic animals without actually using animals, will end up with the win here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: Zootopia
POSSIBLE UPSET: Kubo and the Two Strings
I think Zootopia is pretty much a lock here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
WILL WIN: OJ Made In America
POSSIBLE UPSET: 13th
Not quite as much a lock as Zootopia, but OJ is the frontrunner, and I’m sticking with it.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE:
WILL WIN: The Salesman
POSSIBLE UPSET: Toni Erdmann
Had Donald Trump not banned the Iranian filmmaker from entering the US to attend the Oscars, I would have gone with Toni Erdmann. Now I think that political forces will push The Salesman to the trophy. I could also be wrong. This is one of my more riskier picks.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
WILL WIN: Piper
POSSIBLE UPSET: Blind Vashya
I think Pixar, which hasn’t won this category in a while, will pick up a trophy for Piper.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
WILL WIN: The White Helmets
POSSIBLE UPSET: Extremis
I have no idea. I just go with the flow here.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
WILL WIN: Ennemis Interieurs
POSSIBLE UPSET: Timecode
Again, going with the flow.
Those are my predicitons. I put my predictions up over at Gold Derby, hoping that I’ll rank high enough to be included in their discussions next year. That would be fun.
