A player's EVEN-STRENGTH corsi-for percentage can be the product of his own strong play, the work of his linemates, or simply the result of how his coach is deploying him.
This post will focus on which Toronto Maple Leafs are actually driving possession, and which players are profiting from the way they're being deployed. By combining a player's offensive-zone start percentage with his offensive-zone possession percentage, as well as the number of possession-driving plays he's contributed; we can learn whether a player is spending more "time" with possession in the offensive-zone because of his own hard work; or simply living off his coach's charity.
Only plays that push the puck up-ice while maintaining possession, or events in the offensive-zone that directly result in a shot on net are included as possession-driving plays. Every EVEN-STRENGTH event from every Toronto Maple Leafs 2014-15 regular season game are included. A list of all the events I track can be found here.
Successful offensive-zone events included are: Offensive-zone passes off of the rush, offensive-zone east/west passes, offensive-zone passes to the slot, offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries (off of dumps, broken plays, and rebounds), shots, and deflections
Successful neutral-zone events included are: Neutral-zone open-ice dekes, east/west passes, and north/south passes; along with redline and offensive-blueline controlled-carries
Successful defensive-zone events included are: Outlet passes, stretch passes and defensive-blueline carries.
Offensive-zone puck-possession percentage reflects the percentage of a player's overall events that occur with puck-possession in the offensive-zone. The data for each player is displayed relative to an average Leafs player playing the same position (relative-to-replacement). The higher the value, the more "time" that player spends with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. This metric is calculated simply by dividing the total number of attempted plays with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone by the total amount of events (both with and without possession) that a player engaged in (all 3 zones) at even-strength.
Among Leafs centremen, Mike Santorelli has engaged in the highest percentage of his overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. This despite having a lower offensive-zone start percentage than both Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak. Santorelli will continue to be compared to centremen as long as he remains in the top-4 for face-offs taken among Leafs centremen. Interestingly, Santorelli has actually produced below average numbers in terms of plays that drive possession out of the defensive and through the neutral-zone. It is offensive-zone scoring-plays where Santorelli leads all Leafs centres. In fact he has produced more successful north-bound cycle passes and offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries than any other Toronto player. Kadri on the other hand, leads all Toronto centres in both defensive and neutral-zone possession driving plays per-60.
Tyler Bozak has a higher offensive-zone start percentage than Santorelli, but has engaged in a lower percentage of his overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. Bozak simply does not drive possession. Whether it's out of the defensive-zone or through the neutral-zone, Bozak's possession-driving play numbers are equal to, or lower than the likes of Richard Panik, Matt Frattin, and Carter Ashton. In Bozak's defense, he does play against a higher level of competition than any other Toronto centreman.
Among wingers with substantial ice-time, Phil Kessel has the highest offensive-zone possession percentage. He has the 8th-highest offensive-zone start percentage among Leafs forwards, and the 6th-highest among Leafs wingers. What Kessel has done is lead all Toronto wingers in offensive-zone driving plays per-60. He averages 3 more plays that successfully drive possession out of the defensive-zone, and an incredible 12.5 more neutral-zone possession-driving plays per-60 than the average Toronto winger. In terms of offensive-zone scoring-plays, it's actually Joffrey Lupul and Daniel Winnik who lead all Toronto wingers.
Among defensemen, Morgan Rielly has produced the highest offensive-zone possession percentage, and has the second-highest offensive-zone start percentage among Toronto d-men; behind only Jake Gardner. However, Rielly is not living off of his o-zone start percentage, as he has produced 11.5 more plays per-60 that successfully drive possession out of the defensive-zone, and 8 more neutral-zone possession driving plays per-60 than the average Toronto defenseman. In fact, Rielly has produced more possession-driving plays per-60 this season than even Montreal's PK Subban.
Roman Polak's numbers are the most interesting among Leafs defensemen, as only Rielly has engaged in a higher percentage of his overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. This despite Polak having the second-lowest offensive-zone start percentage among Leafs defensemen. Polak is not getting the puck into the offensive-zone himself, as he has produced nearly 10 fewer even-strength possession-driving plays than average, and fewer plays that successful drive possession out of the defensive-zone than any other Leafs d-man.
A lower defensive-zone turnover-rate is not the answer, as Polak has the fourth-highest defensive-zone turnover-rate among Leafs d-men. What Polak has done is produce the top success-rate in defensive-zone when attempting to remove possession from the opposition, thereby minimizing the "time" he spends in the defensive-zone. Even more importantly, Polak has played more minutes with Rielly than he has with any other Leafs d-man, thereby feeding off the possession-driving work of his young teammate.
At the other end of the spectrum we find Jake Gardner. Gardner has the highest offensive-zone start percentage among Leafs d-men, but has engaged in a lower percentage of his overall events with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone than an average d-man. Despite the high o-zone start percentage, Gardner simply doesn't engage in the play in the offensive-zone. Only Cody Franson and Stephane Robidas have attempted fewer plays with possession in the o-zone than Gardner, and only Robidas has attempted fewer blueline holds (pinches at the offensive-blueline) than number 51.
OVERALL O-ZONE POSSESSION PERCENTAGE
OFFENSIVE-ZONE START PERCENTAGE (FROM BEHINDTHENET.CA)
Special thanks to www.behindthenet.ca for the excellent data
Is a player earning his corsi-percentage, or simply living off deployment? Tracking individual player's puck-possession events (micro-stats) can allow us to look beyond shot-metrics, and communicate why certain players are spending more "time" in the offensive-zone than others.
