Well… kinda.
Let’s face it. When we’re in July, and the #1 grossing film of the year opened in April, we’ve got some problems.
Slumps are difficult to define, because going down from the previous year (which happens a lot) can be defined as a slump. Look, when you don’t have a mega-blockbuster like The Avengers making over 500M, you’re gonna feel like you’re in a slump.
But the truth is… the top TWO movies weren’t released in the summer. The summers highest grossing film so far is X-Men: Days Of Future Past at 230.4M (and counting). Last year, Iron Man 3 had that dubious title, and it made 409.1M. Last summer also had bonafide hits in Despicable Me 2 (368M), Man Of Steel (291M), Monsters University (268M), and Fast and Furious 6 (238M). That’s FIVE films that completely outgrossed X-Men, and FOUR of them have outgrossed 2014′s top film Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
In fact, 19 summer films broke 100 million at the box office. This year? So far, only 10 films have done it. If you go with the assumption that Edge Of Tomorrow is close enough to eek out 100M, you could say 11. I doubt Tammy hits 100M, its too far away and grossing too little.
No other films in release are likely to hit 100M. So in order to hit the promised land of 19, we will need to get 8 more films across the 100M mark.
Guardians Of The Galaxy. Obviously.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles? That’s a possibility.
Hercules? Depends on whether or not it sucks.
Lucy? It could be a sleeper hit, like Salt. The formula is there, if the film is any good.
The Expendables 3? Doubtful. The second one only made 85M.
I suppose it is possible that Get On Up or The Hundred Foot Journey could have the appeal that drew people to movies like The Help, Julie and Julia, and The Butler in August. So, if one of them broke 100M, somehow…
And, let’s just assume that Lets Be Cops is a massive smash hit, ala We’re The Millers, and skates across 100M and launches a new franchise.
I don’t really see eight films here though. I see one sure-fire bet, and a bunch of maybes.
But even with only 12 films breaking 100M, it would tie 2012, the year The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises soaked up all the box office money.
And if it gets one more, it’ll tie 2010, the year Toy Story 3 and Iron Man 2 reigned.
So as far as creating 100M hits, this hasn’t been quite that big of a failure year. It just hasn’t created a mega hit. That’s true.
In fact, to find a year where a summer film didn’t break 300M, you have to go all the way back to 2001, where the highest grossing summer film was Shrek at 267M. So, in that regard, we have a slump.
Unless Guardians Of The Galaxy has the ability to be a true game changer in every way. The pressure is now on for Guardians to overperform, because that would change the entire perspective of the summer. If Guardians could become a bonafide 300M hit, then all this talk of a box office slump becomes kinda moot.
Because 400M hits don’t happen every year. 2011, 2007, 2005, and 2003, were void of summer hits breaking 400M. And just because a summer film doesn’t break 400M, doesn’t mean The Hunger Games: Mockingjay won’t do it.
So, is there a box office slump?
Depends on how you’re measuring it.
