In June the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its 2012 Annual Energy Outlook (PDF). According to the press release, the report includes various “assumptions regarding market, policy, and technology drivers affect projections of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future.”
Among the most pertinent projections for sustainable energy production, renewable energy (as a percentage of electricity generated) is expected to grow from 10 to 15 percent of total electric power generation by 2035. This is despite an anticipated lack of increase in demand. In conjunction with renewables increasing, cleaner burning natural gas is projected to constitute a larger share of electricity generation, which will drive down coal’s percentage from 48% in 2008 to an anticipated 38% by 2035. Given recent news of a resurgence in black-lung disease, this may also bode well for public health.
Below are several key points illustrated in the report:
- The rate of growth in energy use slows over the projection period, reflecting moderate population growth, an extended economic recovery, and increasing energy efficiency in end-use applications
- Domestic crude oil production is expected to increase further
- With modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic production, and continued adoption of nonpetroleum liquids, net imports of petroleum and other liquids make up a smaller share of total U.S. energy consumption
- Natural gas production increases throughout the projection period, allowing the United States to transition from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas
- Power generation from renewables and natural gas continues to increase
- Total energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide in the United States remain below their 2005 level through 2035
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