Comparing Batman v Superman’s Box Office Decline to the Dark Knight Trilogy & Marvel Cinematic Universe

There are those who would look at the cumulative box office totals for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and tell you the “results are fine; not a runaway success, not a disaster, just fine.” After grossing an additional $5.5m in North America this weekend, it is now up to $319.5m domestic, $532.1m international and $851.6m worldwide off of a $250m production budget and who the heck knows how much on marketing. That makes it the 11th all-time highest-grossing superhero movie in North America, and 7th highest worldwide, without adjusting for inflation.

Those are the statistics Warner Bros. is happy to brag about. They sure sounded impressive coming from the stage during the studio’s presentation to theater owners at CinemaCon two weeks ago. But, holy crap y’all, what Batman v Superman is doing at the box office is unprecedented in the worst possible way. As I have said multiple times by now, no superhero movie has ever made this much despite falling so fast after its opening weekend. WB is launching its entire cinematic universe off of a movie which is declining at a rate on par with superhero movies which were either franchise-killers or non-starters, but is that actually a faulty comparison? Is there something to the argument that because BvS’s opening weekend was so large its subsequent drop-offs are acceptable if not somewhat expected?

The Weekend Drops

This chart is limited to only those superhero movies which declined by at least 65% in their second weekend:

Film 2nd Weekend 3rd Weekend 4th Weekend 5th Weekend 6th Weekend

Hulk (2003) ▼ 69.7% ▼ 56.3% ▼ 55.4% ▼ 58.0% ▼66.4%

Batman v Superman (2016) ▼ 69.1% ▼ 54.5%
▼61% ▼ 38.6% ▼???

Elektra (2016) ▼ 69.0% ▼64.4% ▼ 70.7% ▼ 69.9% ▼51.6

Origins: Wolverine (2008) ▼ 69.0% ▼ 44.3% ▼ 45.1% ▼ 52.0% ▼ 50.2%

Fantastic Four (2015) ▼ 68.2% ▼ 54.3% ▼ 52.3% ▼ 38.2% ▼ 59.5%

Kick-Ass 2 (2013) ▼ 67.2% ▼ 55.4% ▼ 67.4% ▼60.6% ▼ 59.9%

X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) ▼ 66.9% ▼ 52.7% ▼ 51.4% ▼ 38.1% ▼ 54.4%

Green Lantern (2011) ▼ 66.1% ▼ 63.6% ▼ 52% ▼ 56.8% ▼71.9%

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) ▼ 65.5% ▼ 54.3% ▼ 53.6% ▼ 61.5% ▼ 54.0%

BvS finally managed a respectable drop in its fifth weekend, but, then again, so did Fantastic Four. This drop still corresponded with BvS leaving the box office top 5 for the first time. It has reached the point in its release cycle where if it was actually well-liked it could keep making significant money for several more weeks (just look at Zootopia), but that is probably not in the cards for BvS.

The Fanboy/Fangirl Argument

“We’re not concerned with the drop,” has been Warners domestic distribution chief Jeff Goldstein’s stance on the film’s steady decline. “We’re most focused on where we are in total. And our global number is huge.”

Elsewhere, Goldstein and other box office analysts have hinted they believe BvS has fallen victim to extreme fanboy/fangirl inflation, i.e., the insane demand among hardcore comic fans to see Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman on screen together for the first time led to a mad rush in that opening weekend which could not be maintained in the subsequent weekends. Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 is pointed to as an example of another film which, due to the hype surroundings its release, enjoyed a huge opening followed by a nearly 70% decline in its second weekend. If that was an acceptable drop since the final Harry Potter movie was obviously a monumental cultural event why should BvS be any different?

That’s where “multiplier” comes in. It’s a popular measurement of word of mouth, arrived at by dividing “a film’s total box office by its opening weekend box office.” The resulting “multiplier” usually ranges from 2.0 (bad/average world-of-mouth) to 6.0 (people practically wanted to marry your movie). Of course, it’s not a perfect measurement. The goal is to cut through the hype and quantify whether or not a film maintained its appeal past its pre-launch marketing campaign, but some film openings are so huge that it’s far easier for a smaller project to post a more impressive multiplier.

Right now, BvS‘s multiplier is 1.92x, and if it ends its run with $336m (tying Spider-Man 3) its multiplier will be 2.0. Let’s look at how that currently stacks up next to other superhero movies:

The All-Time Worst Multipliers for Superhero Movies

Film Opening Weekend Total Domestic Gross Multiplier

Batman v Superman (2016) $166m $319m (for now)
1.92x

Watchmen (2016)  $55.2m $107.5m
1.94x

Elektra (2016) $12.8m $24.9m 1.96x

Origins: Wolverine (2008) $85m $179.8m 2.11x

Hulk (2003) $62.1m $132.1m 2.12x

Fantastic Four (2015) $25.6m $56.1m 2.18x

Green Lantern (2011) $53.1m $116.6m 2.19x

Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2011) $91.6m $202.8m 2.21x

Spider-Man 3 (2007) $151.1m $336.5m 2.22x

Other than Watchmen, all of the above movies were meant to have direct sequels which obviously never arrived, but there will be two spin-off DC movies (Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) before BvS‘s direct sequel. That’s what sets it apart from the rest, even though it currently has the worst multiplier. For example, it’s not like Sony delivered a kickass Sinister Six movie just a couple of months after audiences were less than enthusiastic about The Amazing Spider-Man 2 .

How That Compares to The Dark Knight Trilogy & Man of Steel

Film Opening Weekend Final Domestic Gross Multiplier

Batman v Superman (2016) $166m $319m 1.92x

Man of Steel (2013)  $116.6m $291m
2.49x

The Dark Knight Rises (2012) $160.8m $448.1m 2.78x

The Dark Knight (2008) $158.4m $534.8m 3.37x

Batman Begins (2005) $48.7m $206.8m 4.24x

How That Compares to The Marvel Cinematic Universe

Film

Opening Weekend

Final Domestic Gross

Multiplier

Batman v Superman (2016)

$166m

$319m

1.92x

Iron Man 3 (2013)

$174.1m

$409m

2.34x

Thor: The Dark World (2013)

$85.7m

$206.3m

2.40x

Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

$191.2m

$459m

2.40x

Iron Man 2 (2012)

$128.1m

$312.4m

2.43x

The Incredible Hulk (2008)

$55.4m

$134.8m

2.43x

Captain America: First Avenger (2011)

$65m

$176.6m

2.71x

Captain America: Winter Soldier (2014)

$95m

$259.7m

2.73x

Thor (2011)

$65.7m

$181m

2.75x

Avengers (2012)

$207.4m

$623.3m

3.00x

Ant-Man (2015)

$57.2m

$180.2m

3.15x

Iron Man (2008)

$98.6m

$318m

3.22x

Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)

$94.3m

$333.1m

3.53x

This chart is a good example of the imperfect nature of the multiplier. You could make convincing arguments that Guardians, Iron Man and Avengers were the most warmly received of all the MCU movies which is why their multipliers were so high, but it’d be dang difficult to lump Ant-Man in with the rest of them as being somehow equally popular.

On the opposite end, Iron Man 3 having the lowest multiplier doesn’t automatically anoint it a product of pure hype, although it acknowledges how big of a role hype played in that opening weekend (remember Iron Man 3 was the first Marvel movie after The Avengers).

Maybe the best comparison really is to simply look at other big movies, regardless of genre:

How It Compares to the Other Members of the $150m Club (Every Movie to Have an Opening Weekend at or North of $150m)

Film

Opening Weekend

Total Domestic Gross

Multiplier

Batman v Superman (2016)

$166m

$319m

1.92x

Spider-Man 3 (2007)

$151.1m

$336.5m

2.22x

The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)

$169.1m

$381m

2.25x

Iron Man 3 (2013)

$174.1m

$409m

2.34x

Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

$191.2m

$459m

2.40x

Hunger Games (2012)

$152.5m

$408m

2.67x

Catching Fire (2013)

$158m

$424.6m

2.68x

The Dark Knight Rises (2012)

$160.8m

$448.1m

2.78x

The Avengers (2012)

$207.4m

$623.3m

3.00x

Jurassic World (2015)

$208.8m

$652.2m

3.12x

The Dark Knight (2008)

$158.4m

$534.8m

3.3x

The Force Awakens (2015)

$247.9m

$935.9m

3.7x

Even when isolated to a comparison to other films in its same tax bracket, so to speak, BvS is still shaping up as the most front-loaded blockbuster of our times, indicating that despite what WB wants to believe there is more than just the fanboy/fangirl effect at play here.