First off, I have to say, I’ve been slacking. I really plan to spend a few weeks catching up on all the Oscar bait films, but alas… I’ve been bad. I can’t speak personally to a lot of these nominations, but what I can speak to is how the Golden Globe nominations is shaping the race.
1) Bryan Cranston is officially on the radar.
After landing a SAG nomination, and now a Golden Globe nomination, Bryan Cranston is now someone who should be viewed as a real threat to the preconceived top 5 heading into Awards Season. It was looking like DiCaprio/Smith/Damon/Redmayne and either Depp/Hanks/Fassbender, but now Cranston is throwing a whole new curveball. With Hanks being snubbed by the Globes (and by SAG), Cranston has moved into that fifth spot. And you can’t count out Steve Carell either, who picked up a Golden Globe nomination for a film that has yet to open. If his film gets enough steam, he could also be a real contender. But considering the middling box office for Trumbo, the fact that Cranston and Mirren are even IN this race is a huge show of support for those actors.
Things are not looking good for Hanks (Bridge Of Spies), Ian McKellan (Mr Holmes), or Michael Caine (Youth), who have missed out on a few major nominations heading into this race. I’m not quite ready to call Michael B Jordan out of the race, as Creed has recently put him on the radar.
2) Sicario, Suffragette, and a few others are pretty dead.
If you’re not getting attention from either the SAG nominating group or the Golden Globes, your film is in trouble. Sicario has managed to be forgotten by both despite having strong reviews. A rerelease might be needed to get voters back on page. Other films like Suffragette, Legend, I’ll See You In My Dreams, Me Earl and the Dying Girl, MacBeth, The End Of The Tour, and 45 Years are also in danger.
3) Mark Ruffalo for Infinitely Polar Bear?
Wow. That was a surprise. Even Ruffalo himself was surprised. It’s nice to see that the Golden Globes are thinking outside of the box though.
4) Mad Max: Fury Road is a real contender
After winning a few critics notices, Mad Max showed up in the Best Picture category. It might actually manage a Best Picture nomination, perhaps at the expense of other crowdpleasers like Straight Outta Compton and Inside Out.
5) Looks Like We’re All About Stallone’s Comeback
After missing out on a SAG nomination, Stallone managed to stay in the race with a Globe nomination. He’s in this race. Even if you hated The Expendables.
Here’s my current “State Of The Race” predictions:
BEST PICTURE:
1) Spotlight
2) The Revenant
3) Carol
4) Room
5) The Martian
6) Mad Max: Fury Road
7) Inside Out
8) The Big Short
9) Bridge Of Spies
10) Joy
11) Brooklyn
12) The Hateful Eight
13) Straight Outta Compton
14) The Danish Girl
15) Creed
BEST ACTOR:
1) Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
2) Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
3) Matt Damon (The Martian)
4) Will Smith (Concussion)
5) Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
6) Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
7) Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
8) Steve Carell (The Big Short)
9) Michael B Jordan (Creed)
10) Tom Hanks (Bridge Of Spies)
BEST ACTRESS:
1) Brie Larson (Room)
2) Cate Blanchett (Carol)
3) Saorise Ronan (Brooklyn)
4) Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
5) Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
6) Helen Mirren (Woman In Gold)
7) Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
8) Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
9) Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
10) Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1) Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies)
2) Idris Elba (Beasts Of No Nation)
3) Jacob Tremblay (Room)
4) Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)
5) Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
6) Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
7) Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
8) Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
9) Christian Bale (The Big Short)
10) Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1) Rooney Mara (Carol)
2) Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
3) Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
5) Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
6) Jane Fonda (Youth)
7) Kristen Stewart (The Clouds Of Sils Maria)
8) Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
9) Elizabeth Banks (Love and Mercy)
10) Joan Allen (Room)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1) Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
2) Ridley Scott (The Martian)
3) George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
4) Alejandro Innaritu (The Revenant)
5) Todd Haynes (Carol)
6) Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
7) Adam McKay (The Big Short)
8) Steven Spielberg (Bridge Of Spies)
9) Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
10) Ryan Coogler (Creed)
